Selections are listed in order of preference
The Prof's personal odds-line follows each runner
6-Broadway's Alibi 4-1 - Easy winner in last 4 races earning best sheet figs in this field. Picked a tough spot to make her first start around two turns. Untried at this distance but is bred to handle it. Dangerous if allowed to set or stalk a moderate early pace.
3-Summer Applause 6-1
- Improving filly finished first or second in last 5 starts. Sharp recent work at Churchill. Versatile running style is advantageous with inside(3) post. May surprise at her 15-1 morning line odds with capable Garrett Gomez in the irons.1-On Fire Baby 8-1 - Undefeated in two starts at Churchill, both grade 2 stakes. Earned fast sheet fig in an off-the-pace win at Oaklawn last time out. Draws disadvantageous inside post in 14 horse field. Decent chance with clean trip from rider Joe Johnson.
8-Jemina's Pearl 25-1 - Baffert trained filly improved her sheet figs in both starts in this country after shipping to USA from Ireland. Doubtful for the win but may sneak into the gimmicks at a good price.
13-Annie's Dini 25-1 - Improving filly was first or second in last 5 starts. Won at Churchill last Fall. Continued improvement puts her in the hunt with picture perfect ride from Jon Court
Wagering Strategy:
$1 Exacta wheel: 2-3-6 with 2-3-6-8-13 = 12
$1 Trifecta wheel: 2-3-6 with 2-3-6-8-13 with 2-3-6-8-13 = $36
$1 Oaks/Derby Double: 2-3-6 with 4-6-15-16 = $12
Selections are listed in order of preference
The Prof's personal odds-line follows each runner
16-El Padrino 8-1
- Ran a competitive sheet fig despite finishing 4th in Florida Derby-G2 last time out. Should enjoy a nice stalking trip behind a possible fast early pace. Loses rider Castellano to top choice but gains able replacement in Rafael Bejarano. May be a strong late factor at long odds.4-Union Rags 10-1 - Michael Matz trained stretch-runner should get a fast early pace to set up his strong late charge. Suffered a troubled trip in his last race. Strong contender for top honors with a clean trip from rider Julien Leparoux.
6-Bodemeister 10-1 - Baffert son of Empire Maker ran lights-out in last race, winning by more than 9 lengths. Earned an eye-popping sheet fig in that effort. Lightly raced type may lack the foundation to repeat his last race in this crowded field on relatively short rest. Am willing to bet against considering his short odds.
3-Take Charge Indy 12-1 - Winner of Florida Derby-G1 draws inside with rail-hugging Calvin Borel in the irons. A ground saving trip makes him dangerous but that is a big IF in this crowded field.
5-Dullahan 25-1 - Half-brother to Ky Derby longshot winner, Mine That Bird rallied strongly to win the Bluegrass Stakes-G1 last time out. His ability on a dirt surface is suspect but may hit the board at a decent price if he handles it. Kent Desormeaux rides.
8-Creative Cause 25-1 - Rallied to finish 3rd in BC-Juvenile-G1 on this track last fall. Mid-pack stalker should get the fast early pace he needs to set up his late charge. Capable of winning with improvement but prefer to play him on the bottom of the gimmicks.
14-Hansen 25-1 - Pretty white colt finished no worse than 2nd in all 6 career starts. Won the BC-Juvenile-G1 in his only start at Churchill Downs. Draws decent outside post but must be careful to avoid being caught up in a possible suicidal pace set by rabbit, Trinniberg.
The Professor's Comments
The sprinter Trinniberg will ensure a torrid early pace. The frontrunners and stalkers must be careful not to get involved or they will be toast. Wouldn't be surprised to see a cavalry charge in the stretch. Good Luck as we'll need it!
Wagering Strategy
$1 Exacta wheel: 4-15-16 with 3-4-5-8-15-16 = $15
$1 Trifecta wheel: 15-16 with 3-4-8-15-16 with 3-4-5-8-15-16 = $32
$1 Superfecta wheel: 15 with 4-16 with 3-4-8-16 with 3-4-5-8-16 = $18
